Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
