A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
